Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2804
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 2804 · MDW → LGA
departs 2:50 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 933 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.