Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2819
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 2819 · MCI → DCA
departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 3:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.