WN 290 · DCA → DAL

took off 11:06 AM ET · expected to land 12:53 PM CT (scheduled 11:00 AM ET → 1:19 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DAL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.15 in

DAL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 290 · DCA → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?