WN 3103 · MSY → DCA

departs 9:26 AM CT · arrives 1:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.4 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at DCA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.38 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3103 · MSY → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?