Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3230 · BNA → DAL
departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 11:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BNA that day
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.