Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3278 · BWI → MIA
departs 6:50 AM ET · arrives 9:25 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from BWI are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.