Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3810
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 3810 · STL → RDU
departs 8:00 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
8pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.78 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.