Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3810
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3810 · STL → RDU
departs 7:10 PM CT · arrives 10:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.