Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3810
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3810 · STL → RDU
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 10:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.