Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4013
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4013 · HOU → MEM
departs 10:10 AM CT · arrives 11:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at MEM that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.52 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.