Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4036
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4036 · MSP → DEN
departs 1:50 PM CT · arrives 2:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 7,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.