Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4254 · BWI → HOU
departs 12:20 PM ET · arrives 2:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 25%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
55%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
55%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
HOU is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at HOU that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.18 in
HOU (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.