Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4254 · BWI → HOU
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 3:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 333 ft forecast at BWI that day
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.