Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4466 · SDF → DAL
departs 3:00 PM ET · arrives 4:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
↑
Arrivals into DAL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAL (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.