Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4470 · OMA → MDW
departs 1:10 PM CT · arrives 2:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.