Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4470 · OMA → DCA
departs 12:20 PM CT · arrives 3:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.