Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4588
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4588 · MCO → CMH
departs 10:35 PM ET · arrives 12:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3 45%
Sun 10/4
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.