Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4613 · SJU → MCO
departs 5:40 PM AT · arrives 8:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SJU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.