Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4613 · SJU → MCO
departs 6:30 PM AT · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.35 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.