Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4624 · BNA → JAX
departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 11:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.