Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 4624 · BNA → JAX
departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 26%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.