Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4624
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 4624 · BNA → JAX
departs 7:00 PM CT · arrives 9:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 30%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at JAX that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.