Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4656 · MCO → MSY
departs 10:40 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 45%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 567 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.