Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4656 · MCO → MSY
departs 10:05 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±6 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
10pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.37 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.