Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4778 · ATL → BWI
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.79 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.