Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4778
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4778 · ATL → BWI
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.10 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.