Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4784
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 4784 · HOU → MIA
departs 11:05 AM CT · arrives 2:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.52 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.