Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4814 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

WN 4814 · TUL → DAL

departs 5:30 AM CT · arrives 6:35 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAL?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DAL that day

↑ Other factors

↑ DAL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into DAL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

DAL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4814 · TUL → DAL

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAL?