Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4926
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4926 · MKE → MCO
departs 7:50 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±8 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.