Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4926
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4926 · MKE → MCO
departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 12:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MKE
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.37 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.