Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
WN 4946 · LGA → MCI
departs 8:55 PM ET · arrives 11:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.