Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
WN 4946 · LGA → MCI
departs 9:25 PM ET · arrives 11:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 2,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.