WN 4968 · BNA → DTW

departs 5:10 PM CT · arrives 7:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
35%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BNA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DTW (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4968 · BNA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?