WN 4968 · BNA → DTW

departs 1:48 PM CT · arrives 4:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4968 · BNA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?