Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 823 · PVD → TPA
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 3:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
TPA is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PVD that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.06 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.