Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 823 · PVD → TPA
departs 3:15 PM ET · arrives 6:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.06 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.