Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 866 · BWI → AUS
departs 10:30 AM ET · arrives 12:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
10am departures from BWI are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.38 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.