Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 866 · BWI → AUS
departs 9:40 AM ET · arrives 12:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 9%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↑
BWI is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.