Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 894 · BWI → BUF
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 2:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 15%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at BWI that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.13 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.