Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 894 · BWI → BUF
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 2:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 1.2 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.