Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 976
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 976 · BWI → LAS
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.35 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.