Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 976
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 976 · BWI → LAS
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 7:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±8 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
BWI is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.