Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 976
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Yesterday
WN 976 · BWI → LAS
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/1
Today 42%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.