Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3449
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3449 · PIT → IAD
departs 7:59 PM ET · arrives 9:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.