Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3493 · CVG → IAD
departs 10:18 AM ET · arrives 11:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
Other factors
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.