Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3493 · CVG → IAD
departs 10:18 AM ET · arrives 11:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CVG (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.