Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3565
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3565 · PIT → EWR
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 15%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Wed 10/7 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.