Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Today
YX 3581 · ORD → HHH
departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 2:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 15%
Sat 10/10 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HHH (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7.42857 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.