Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5 Tomorrow
YX 3581 · ORD → HHH
departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 2:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 15%
Sat 10/10 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HHH (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 1.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.