Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3603
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3603 · EWR → ORF
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at ORF that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.